Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

  ***** Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? By Brian Michael Jenkins; published by Prometheus Books, www.prometheusbooks.com (Web); 424 pages; $26.98.

Despite its title, this insightful book by a pioneer and a leading authority on terrorism has two major themes. Author Brian Michael Jenkins differentiates between “nuclear terrorism” and the perception of “what might be.” In so doing, he aptly illustrates that terrorism is not defined by executed attacks alone; it is amplified by its threat. This distinction allows Jenkins to effectively address the profound psychological impact of terrorism on individuals, societies, and governments.

Jenkins strips away the media-fed melodrama and resulting fear generated by the threat of terrorists using nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. He acknowledges, however, that the fear has proven on occasion to be well-founded. He cites Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo’s attempts to acquire nuclear weapons and the 1995 incident in which Chechen separatists planted a radiological dirty bomb in a Moscow park.

In the latter case, however, notes Jenkins, the perpetrators never planned to detonate the device. They alerted a television station to the device’s location, seeking to instill fear among the public and create leverage in negotiations with the Russian government.

Jenkins provides an exceedingly well-written discussion of the evolution of the nuclear terrorist threat, providing a clear, nontechnical description of the impediments to fabricating a nuclear weapon. He notes that even if an organization cannot buy or build a device, the threat alone might make it a powerful force in international affairs.

To illustrate the importance of threat and fear, Jenkins calls al Qaeda the world’s “first terrorist nuclear power,” while noting immediately that the organization does not, to our knowledge, have a bomb.

Al Qaeda’s “ability to effectively create an international climate of fear without the actual capability is a manifestation of… warfare, in which perceptions count more than the destructive power of physical weaponry, a reality that is only now being understood in the West and has not yet fully penetrated Western military institutions,” Jenkins writes (his italics).

In a chapter titled “A Brilliant Yellow Light,” Jenkins offers an excellent scenario of nuclear terrorism that could be used in educational exercises for students seeking to understand the complexities of nuclear terrorism; it could also be used by professionals and policy makers who someday might have to respond to an actual incident.

Will Terrorists Go Nuclear? should be required reading for those interested in understanding this threat and placing it in perspective. The book is a tonic for the scare tactics that often characterize the discussion of the realities and myths of contemporary terrorism.

Reviewer: Stephen Sloan is The Lawrence J. Chastang Distinguished Professor of Terrorism Studies at the University of Central Florida and a member of the ASIS Global Terrorism, Political Instability, and International Crime Council.