Al Qaeda Strengthens Its Ability to Attack the United States

Al Qaeda has used the ties it forged with Pakistani tribal leaders to create a safehaven from which it has strengthened its ability to strike the United States, America's top intelligence analyst said yesterday.

"In spite of successful U.S. and allied operations against al-Qaeda, especially the death of important al-Qaeda figures since December, the group has maintained or strengthened key elements of its capability to attack the United States in the past year," said Ted Gistaro, U.S. national intelligence officer (NIO) for transnational threats, before the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

"We assess that al-Qaeda's intent to attack the U.S. homeland remains undiminished. Attack planning continues and we assess it remains focused on hitting prominent political, economic, and infrastructure targets designed to produce mass casualties, visually dramatic destruction, and significant economic and political aftershocks," he said.

Last month, al Qaeda reported online that Abu Khabab al-Masri, an explosives and chemical expert, had been killed by an American airstrike on a compound in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Yesterday, Pakistani officials also said that another al Qaeda senior commander, Abu Saeed al-Masri, was killed fighting Pakistani soldiers in Pakistan's tribal area.

But al Qaeda's collaboration with Pakistani militants allows it to quickly replenish "its bench of skilled mid-level lieutenants capable of directing its global operations," Gistaro explained.

According to The New York Times, the assessment of al Qaeda's strength was the first since last year's National Intelligence Estimate. Gistaro was the principal author of that document, which said al Qaeda had reconstituted itself on the Afghan-Pakistan border. A year later, the threat has only grown worse as al Qaeda's ties with Pakistani militants have tightened.

While al Qaeda's capability to strike has increased, Gistaro reiterated that the intelligence agencies have not received a credible and specific threat from the jihadist organization.

He also warned that al Qaeda has recruited and trained operatives from the West, likely including American citizens, to infiltrate and attack the United States. Passport holders from Canada and Europe do not need a U.S. visa to enter the country, although the United States is controversially moving toward an electronic check-in system it says is not a visa in disguise.

Another realm from which al Qaeda will seek operatives to hit the United States is online. By spreading its jihadist message virtually, he says,  the group will attempt to inspire American militants to attack the U.S. without direct material support.

"Though difficult to measure," Gistaro said, "the spread of radical Salafist Internet sites that provide religious justification for attacks, violent anti-Western rhetoric, and signs that self-generating cells in the United States identify with bin Laden's violent objectives all suggest a small number of individuals here may radicalize to the point that they consider conducting violent attacks."

The level of al Qaeda propaganda should also hit a crescendo as the anniversary of 9-11 and the 2008 presidential election approaches, he said.

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